COVID Models

From iGeek
There were models to teach us what we had to worry about with the Pandemic. They were terribad.
There were multiple models used to scare the rubes on what we had to worry about with the COVID Pandemic. They were terribad. They either under-estimated or over-estimated the dead. But even when they got close, they got the time scale to get those deaths off by orders of magnitude (and would have been more wrong, if the predicted the Vaccines, but wrong on that as well).
ℹ️ Info          
~ Aristotle Sabouni
Created: 2020-04-27 

There were models to teach us what we had to worry about with the Pandemic.

  • 2020.03.13 NYT had their model which predicted 9.4M infections at peak (100M overall), and 1M dead and 366K ICU cases. That was with Social Distancing, cancelling large events and work from home. Based on what actually happened, that was pure fear mongering. [1]
  • 2020.03.17 Imperial College of London Covid-19 Response Team (Dr. Neil M. Ferguson) claimed even with Social Distancing & Quarantine, best case we would see 1.1 Million dead and Hospitals overwhelmed in America and worst case was 2.2 Million dead. FakeNews like The Intercept, NYT and CNN was hyping that. [2]
  • 2020.03.14 The CHIME model (Penn Medicines: COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics), was for modeling individual Hospitals and regions, and later turned out to way over-estimate the demands. But the media was more focused on national rather than regional modeling, so it didn't get as much attention unless sensationalizing the local impact of the crisis. [3]
  • 2020.03.26 The UW IHME (University of Washington, Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation), estimated 93K (39-177K) deaths, they dropped this to 82K (49-136K) on 04.07, and kept revising the numbers over time. While their initial projections in death rate were inflated, they were off by more on their Hospitalization and ICU beds (peak demand of 40,646 ICU beds, and a bed shortage of 23K ICU beds). They halved those projections over the next weeks, but were still off by 5-10x actual requirements. Regionally they were often worse. [4]
  • 2020.03.29 Donald Trump said the death projections were between 100-200K, but we expected to get that down with the latest measures and upcoming treatments and the media was aghast. MSNBC (Chris Hayes) and others accused the President of lying or sandbagging (inflating numbers). But people called them on it, and pointed out it was Fauci, the task forces numbers based on the IMHE model, so that was shut down pretty quickly. [5]


🔗 More

New York Times
A never great News Agency has become a shadow of their former self: admittedly biased, occasionally good content.

Fake News
While the term goes back 100 years, the history is summed up well by Sharyl Attkisson.

List all the articles that have work to be done on them.

1980 Ted Turner started CNN to put his left center spin on "the news". Then it went downhill.

COVID FakeNews
The media has been generating a landslide of FakeNews around COVID (SARS-CoV-2).

The Intercept
The Intercept was a left leaning brainchild of Glenn Greenwald, then he left and they went further left.

The public was lied to. Those lies advantaged some politicians and elites, and have undermined the public trust.

There's what the politicians call science, then there's the real science. This is the science on COVID., Leftists want to eliminate parental consent for children to get COVID vaccine

🔗 Links

Tags: NYT  FakeNews  TBD  CNN  COVID-FakeNews  Intercept  COVID Lies  COVID/Science

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